The "Akelius effect" is over on the Swedish forest property market

New statistics from Svefa, Sweden's leading independent real estate advisor, show that the average price trend for forest properties in the country is negative, even though pulp and wood prices  are still rising and are at record levels. Uppsala and Gotland counties top the table of percentage price development with 7.1 and 7.0 percent growth respectively in 2023, while Gävleborg and Västernorrland are at the bottom with -5.9 and -5.6 percent price reduction, respectively.

Svefa has compiled the development for Sweden's 21 counties for the full year 2023 and it is notable that the "Akelius effect" on the Swedish forest property market is over for this time. Svefa already stated in August that reality had caught up with the Swedish forest property market. Now the trend break is a fact, and the price development has, after many years of very positive growth, turned down and several counties are now showing negative growth. The top three counties with continued growth are Uppsala 7.1 percent, Gotland 7.0 percent and Värmland 2.3 percent. At the bottom we find Gävleborg -5.9 percent, Västernorrland -5.6 percent and Östergötland -4.4 percent.

During 2023, the prices of Swedish forest properties have decreased by an average of 0.5 percent. Looking at the price in Swedish kronor (SEK), Skåne is still the most expensive at 1,000 SEK/m3sk. In the high-price counties, the development is somewhat scattered, where the price development in Halland is positive (2.2 percent) and negative in Östergötland (-4.4 percent). Large parts of the country still showed positive development in the first half of 2023, but then turned downward in the second half.

"The trend break is now a fact. However, it is important to remember that we have had many years of strong price development and that the growth during the last years to some extents have been doped up. But the "Akelius effect" on the Swedish forest property market is over and the adjustment is a natural consequence of that. We see that the price trend will be more normal in the coming years as we have a strong timber market," says Paul Nord, Head of Svefa Forestry and Agriculture.